Petrov predicts a strengthening of the ruble. “We are entering a phase of fear for the ruble.” Those who believed in the ruble won

The beginning of the year is the time to make forecasts. This is what analysts do, including for the ruble. What was predicted for the Russian currency by the person who previously gave the most accurate forecasts for it.

We are talking about Dmitry Petrov from Nomura International, who once again shared his opinion with Bloomberg. Note that he ranks first in the rating of 34 agency forecasters over the past four quarters.

Dmitry is confident that the worst is over for the ruble, as well as for oil prices. He believes that after falling to record lows, both oil prices and the Russian currency will show growth. However, you shouldn’t expect any miracles.

According to Petrov’s forecast, in three quarters the dollar to ruble exchange rate will be 67 rubles. versus 76 rub. for a dollar now. By the end of the year, the ruble will strengthen further - to 65 rubles. for a dollar.

“We believe that the dollar-ruble pair is approaching peak values ​​and are considering the possibility of buying the ruble in the coming weeks,” Petrov wrote in a client note.

The expert also cites other factors. In particular, he notes a decrease in demand for currencies from domestic players. Payments on external debt amount to less than $15 billion, that is, almost half as much as in 2015. In addition, Petrov does not exclude demand for Russian assets from non-residents, which will also support the ruble.

Bank of America, for example, in its latest review dated January 7, recommended buying Russian bonds.

If you look at the consensus forecast of Bloomberg analysts, the dollar to ruble exchange rate will be at around 69 rubles for most of the year, which also indicates strengthening. What is the probability that all these experts will be wrong about the direction of travel? The question is rhetorical.

However, not everyone is optimistic about the future of the ruble. Barclays experts, for example, say that the prospects for the Russian currency look very dim as the economy is in recession, oil is hovering at its lowest levels in almost 12 years, and the growth of China, Russia's largest trading partner, is slowing. And although this is a set of obvious facts rather than a forecast, you can’t argue with these facts. By the way, Barclays is waiting for 78 rubles. per dollar by the end of the year.

It is also worth saying a few words about the opinion of Russian experts. Economic commentator Grigory Beglaryan believes that the fall in oil prices is coming to an end, and therefore he believes that it is possible to begin to form a long position in the near future. As a target range, he designated the levels of $28-30 per barrel, and given the high dynamics of decline, oil could go up a little earlier - from $32.

As a rule, a change in trend does not happen just like that, but along with a change in the information background. The largest media are beginning to publish a lot of relevant information, however, this is not yet the case.



Even if the dollar exchange rate suddenly drops from 75 rubles to 10 at once, foreign currency mortgage holders are unlikely to be happy about this. But it will please many others who did not take out a loan in foreign currency. What exactly to expect from the ruble exchange rate, Dozhd asked Dmitry Petrov, an economist for Russia and the CIS at Nomura International Bank, whom Bloomberg considers the most accurate forecaster in terms of assessing the ruble exchange rate.

Makeeva: Even if the dollar exchange rate suddenly drops from 75 rubles to 10 rubles or even more, foreign currency mortgage holders are unlikely to be happy about this, they simply don’t care, they already have a large-scale problem. But this will please many others who did not take out a loan in foreign currency. We will discuss what exactly to expect from the ruble exchange rate with Dmitry Petrov, an economist for Russia and the CIS at Nomura International Bank, whom Bloomberg considers the most accurate forecaster in terms of assessing the ruble exchange rate. Dmitry is in touch with the Dozhd studio from London. Good evening.

Petrov: Good evening.

Makeeva: Thank you very much for agreeing to talk with us. This week, the ruble lost 26% in value over three months and, in general, probably set another record. And at the same time, on January 11, I saw your forecast that the ruble should further strengthen against the background of a slowdown in the decline in oil prices and a decrease in the volume of dollar purchases by banks. You've been predicting this for three months. And even there the figure was given, if I’m not mistaken, from 74 to 67. Do you still adhere to this position? And what, exactly, should affect the ruble so beneficially?

Petrov: Our forecasts are based on the general price forecast of our group, which has been slightly adjusted, but in principle we still believe that in the medium term prices should return to some range, maybe 35-40 dollars per barrel, which in principle, one of the components of this forecast. And the second component, as you correctly said, I would not say at all that these are purchases of dollars by banks, this was a little, perhaps incorrectly translated, but the overall demand, that is, from the balance of payments side, the demand for dollars, it has fallen significantly . That is, if we saw a capital outflow of about 150 billion in 2014, then in 2015 it was 57 billion. The demand from the population has changed quite a lot, that is, the black outflow of capital, and so on. But again, most of the non-residents’ money, which was in the form of bank loans, was withdrawn in 2014, so looking at the dynamics of oil in the medium term, and looking at the fact that the economy’s need for dollars due to capital outflow has actually fallen The picture for the ruble does not look as bad as it now seems. Again, making forecasts for the range of 1-3 months is quite difficult, because oil is very volatile, and we see that there is a movement of about 10% within two weeks, but still, if you look at the forecasts that people make, related to the oil sector, regarding prices in the next 12 months, it seems to me that maybe we have not yet completely passed the worst moment in the ruble, but we are still moving in the opposite direction.

Makeeva: That is, according to your forecast, we will not see a rate above 200?

Petrov: You know, the rate for 200 may be in some kind of black scenario, but we tried to simulate different scenarios - capital outflow and oil prices going below $10 per barrel. And even in such a scenario, it is probably quite difficult to reach an exchange rate of 200 rubles per dollar. Again, it is one thing to achieve it in some perspective of several trading hours, and another thing to maintain at such levels. This is a question of some more medium-term forecast than of some trading moments in the middle of the day, when panic occurs, a lot of things can happen, but again, you cannot live with such scenarios.

Makeeva: As for the scenarios, the government cannot agree on reducing budget expenditures in general, and it is difficult before the elections. Where to get money?

Petrov: At the moment, of course, there are many questions, that is, in fact, fiscal questions, they are the most difficult, and as you correctly said, they worry the markets most of all, that is, they worry the markets in terms of how this will affect the ruble. Because somewhere, in their heads, people understand that in fact one of the easiest, perhaps, methods of getting out of the situation is the devaluation of the ruble, so it is very important here that the state sends the right signals regarding budget consolidation . At the moment, of course, there are concerns, but still in the future the Ministry of Finance will cut the budget. How much it will be cut is still unclear, but in our base scenario we still expect that there will be a decrease in costs, maybe about 7% nominally.

Makeeva: Well, it was called 10%. Do you think raising taxes can solve this problem?

Petrov: Changing the tax base in the medium term can help, because in fact the oil industry is heavily taxed, and if you look into the future of the economy, I take 1, 2, 3 years, other sectors of the economy, which now have better forecasts for their products, because simply because of the fall of the ruble they have become more competitive in the Russian and foreign markets. That is, changes in the tax base of those sectors that will receive large profits in the future make sense, but this must be done very carefully, because any such statements greatly affect the mood of business and, as we see from all sorts of recent surveys, uncertainty with side of government action is one of the things that actually hinder the development of business in Russia. That is, conduct all these negotiations very carefully...

Makeeva: And even statements of intentions to make, yes, probably. I would like to ask you to briefly, if possible, comment on the news that everyone is discussing today: Deputy Minister of Finance Alexei Moiseev announced that large deposits of individuals in Russian banks amounting to more than 100 million rubles can be forcibly converted into the capital of problem banks, problem financial organizations. A similar scheme for supporting problem banks, various publications note this and immediately point out this, was used in Cyprus in 2013. Do you think it is right to apply this experience now in Russia? What results can this give?

Petrov: Well, true or false, this is such a very hypothetical question. That is, again, if you look at those investors, people who invest such amounts in bank deposits, they are, in principle, equal to debt investors, that is, when a bank goes bankrupt, it’s one thing what happens with small deposits, another thing when people with with such large deposits, they have a completely different class. That is, this was such a very sensitive issue also in Europe, from the side of ethical approaches, from the side of legal approaches, but on the other hand, if you look at the other part of this problem, it would also not be entirely correct to use state money in all these cases. That is, in fact, this practice is applied, and we saw how it was applied in Cyprus, but one important point is that it was adopted there for the entire financial system. There is, of course, a danger that this will somehow affect the competitiveness of banks in the system, that is, if this is applied or somehow there is a risk of application by some relative bank, that is, smaller banks may see an outflow of deposits to larger ones banks. This is of course undesirable. This question is probably more about how it will be applied. It could be kind of good, it could be bad. But at the moment, it’s probably very early to talk about this, because we don’t yet know any details for sure.

Makeeva: Thank you. Dmitry Petrov, economist for Russia and the CIS at Nomura International PLC, was in touch with Dozhd from London.

Photo: Grigory Sysoev / RIA Novosti

Analyst at Nomura International Plc. Dmitry Petrov, recognized last year as the most accurate forecaster of the ruble exchange rate by Bloomberg, expects the Russian currency to strengthen its position in the first quarter of 2016. The dollar exchange rate, according to Petrov, will drop to 67-70 rubles due to rising oil prices, Bloomberg reports.

After the ruble suffered a 20 percent fall in 2015 and hit a record low of 75.74 last week, the worst is over, Petrov says. For the next three months, according to analyst forecasts, the dollar will remain at around 67 rubles, and by the end of the year the rate will drop to 65 rubles. For most of the year, the dollar exchange rate will be 69 rubles. The ruble will strengthen due to rising oil prices, which could rise to $35-40 per barrel, the expert assures.

« We believe we are approaching the bottom in the dollar pair- ruble, and are inclined to consider the possibility of buying the ruble in the coming weeks“,” Petrov told Bloomberg. According to the expert, this is “ very attractive opportunity in 2016».

Other market watchers, including Barclays Plc, say the outlook for the ruble is dim as the country's economy struggles to recover from recession while the price of oil has hit a nearly 12-year low and economic growth in Russia's biggest trading partner, China. slowed down. According to Barclays forecasts, in the first quarter of 2016 the dollar will cost 76 rubles, and by the end of the year it will rise to 78.

source Bloomberg USA North America tags

• 03:00

  Apple presented AirPods Pro wireless headphones with a new design and active noise cancellation, which will go on sale in Russia next week.

• 03:00

  Krasnodar striker Magomed-Shapi Suleymanov commented on the information that his age has been rewritten.

• 03:00

  Music critic Alexander Volkov, in a conversation with Nation News, spoke about the reasons for the popularity of Metallica.

• 03:00

  British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the government will introduce a new, short bill to the British Parliament to hold snap elections on December 12.

• 03:00

  Krasnodar striker Ivan Ignatiev commented on rumors that in the summer he could move to the St. Petersburg football club Zenit.

• 03:00

  Pentagon chief Mark Esper said that American troops will continue to protect oil fields in Syria and will respond to any attempts by other parties to take control of them.

• 03:00

  A storm warning has been announced in Crimea. A sharp change in weather is predicted in the republic this week. This was reported by RIA Novosti Crimea with reference to the regional Main Directorate of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia.

• 03:00

  Krasnodar forward Magomed-Shapi Suleymanov compared Spanish Barcelona striker Lionel Messi and the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) lightweight champion, Russian Khabib Nurmagomedov.

• 03:00

  The House of Commons of the British Parliament rejected Prime Minister Boris Johnson's proposal to hold early parliamentary elections on December 12.

• 03:00

  Vice-President of the Russian Union of Tourism Industry (RST) Olga Sanaeva commented to RT on the possible appearance of an “accommodation tax” in hotels in Turkey in 2020.

• 03:00

  American producer Robert Evans, who worked on the films “The Godfather” and “Chinatown,” has died at the age of 89. This was reported by the Associated Press with reference to his representative.

• 03:00

  Krasnodar goalkeeper Matvey Safonov admitted that the Italian football club Fiorentina showed interest in him.

• 03:00

  The Pentagon promised to soon present photo and video evidence of the liquidation of the leader of the terrorist group “Islamic State”* Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi during a US special operation in Syrian Idlib.

• 03:00

  Kazan Ak Bars defeated Khabarovsk Amur in the regular season match of the Continental Hockey League (KHL).

• 03:00

  St. Petersburg SKA in a shootout turned out to be stronger than Cherepovets Severstal in the regular season match of the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL).

• 03:00

  Former Russian hockey player Andrei Nazarov, who played in the National Hockey League (NHL) from 1993 to 2005, commented on the information about the American citizenship of Russian national team and Pittsburgh Penguins striker Evgeni Malkin.

• 03:00

  First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Vladimir Dzhabarov commented on RT on the statement of Verkhovna Rada deputy Vadim Rabinovich about the risk of the return of fascism to Ukraine.

• 03:00

  British Prime Minister Boris Johnson sent a letter to President of the European Council Donald Tusk, in which he confirmed his agreement with the European Union’s decision to postpone Brexit until January 31, 2020.

• 03:00

  Red Bull sports consultant Helmut Marko, who said earlier that Russian Toro Rosso driver Daniil Kvyat is not a candidate for the main team next season, denied his own words.

• 03:00

  Representatives of the international coalition to combat the terrorist organization "Islamic State"* will hold a meeting in Washington on November 14.

• 03:00

  Russian cross-country skiing team coach Markus Kramer said that Yulia Belorukova and Elena Soboleva, who will miss the season due to pregnancy, will be replaced by other talented athletes.

• 03:00

  Verkhovna Rada deputy Vadim Rabinovich, during the celebrations marking the anniversary of the liberation of Ukraine from the Nazi invaders, noted that there is a risk that fascism has returned to the country.

• 03:00

  American President Donald Trump misspoke and called his Ukrainian colleague Vladimir Zelensky “the new president of Russia.” Users of social networks drew attention to the US leader’s reservation.

• 03:00

  The striker of Juventus Turin and the Portuguese national football team, Cristiano Ronaldo, admitted that if he had the opportunity, he would only take part in important matches.

• 03:00

  The head of the Sober Russia organization, Sultan Khamzaev, in a conversation with the 360 ​​TV channel, appreciated the proposal to develop amendments to tighten responsibility for promoting drugs on the Internet.

• 03:00

  The head of the Center for British Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Elena Ananyeva, in a conversation with NSN, commented on the situation around Brexit.

• 03:00

  Chilean President Sebastian Piñera has replaced eight ministerial heads amid two weeks of protests in the country.

• 03:00

  In the Moscow region, 18.9 billion rubles have been allocated for the implementation of the national project “Demography”, reports TV channel “360”.

• 03:00

  The international congress “History of Sambo” will be held on November 6-8 at the National Research University “MPEI”, reports the online publication argumenti.ru.

• 03:00

  The head of Yakutia, Aisen Nikolaev, and the general director of the Fund for the Protection of the Rights of Shareholders, Oleg Govorun, entered into an agreement on co-financing the completion of a number of problem houses in the region. This was reported by Gazeta.Ru with reference to the press service of the republican government.

• 03:00

  Nutritionist Elena Solomatina, in a conversation with Vechernaya Moskva, spoke about the most harmful food combinations.

• 03:00

  Users of the Strelka virtual transport card will be able to pay for travel on public transport in the Moscow region using mobile devices, the 360 ​​TV channel reports, citing the press service of the regional Ministry of Transport and Road Infrastructure.

• 03:00

  Forward of the Russian national hockey team and the Pittsburgh Penguins, Evgeni Malkin confirmed his American citizenship.

• 03:00

  Fishing is temporarily limited on the southern coast of Crimea, reports RIA Novosti Crimea with reference to the press service of the Border Department of the FSB of Russia for the republic.

• 03:00

  The Association of Tour Operators of Russia said that in 2020 a new tax may appear in the Turkish tourism industry, which will affect all accommodation facilities, including hotels.

• 03:00

  Small missile ships "Uglich" and "Veliky Ustyug" arrived at the base of surface ships of the Caspian flotilla in the Astrakhan region, the Zvezda TV channel reports.

• 03:00

  The exhibition “The Vorontsovs and Italy” will open on October 31 at the Alupka Museum-Reserve, Kryminform reports. Ronaldo spoke about his immediate career goal

  Striker of Turin Juventus and Portugal national football team Cristiano Ronaldo named his goal for the coming years in his career.

• 03:00

  Russian artist Nikolai Kasatkin, whose paintings are kept in the American Zimmerli Museum, Tretyakov Gallery, Pushkin Museum and other cultural institutions, died at the age of 88.

• 03:00

  Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy Pavel Zavalny, commenting on RT on the completion of trilateral consultations between Russia, the European Union and Ukraine on gas transit in Brussels, noted that the most important conclusion is that the parties are committed to resolving the issue.

• 03:00

  The girl's mother, instead of the Ingush Ombudsman Zarema Chakhkieva, became the legal representative of seven-year-old Aisha Azhigova from Ingushetia, who was allegedly beaten by her aunt. Anna Kuznetsova, Commissioner for Children's Rights in Russia, reported this.

• 03:00

  President of the Biathlon Union of Serbia Velimir Vukadin said that the executive committee of the International Biathlon Union (IBU) refused to allow former Russian biathlete Ekaterina Avvakumova to compete for the Serbian national team.

  Stoltenberg urged Belarus not to worry about NATO exercises

  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that he sees no reason for Belarus to be concerned in connection with NATO exercises near its borders.

The Russian currency completed pre-Christmas trading with a significant weakening against its key counterparts. The fall against the dollar was 1.44 rubles, against the euro - 1.92 rubles. At today's session, the domestic currency starts at ₽74.7590/dollar. and ₽80.6480/euro.

The ruble will begin trading on Monday against the backdrop of significantly sagging oil, the cost of which during the holidays approached the 30-dollar mark ($33.19 at 08:52 Moscow time). A new wave of falling prices was provoked by Saud. Arabia, which provided European customers with a discount on supplied raw materials. The situation is aggravated by the weakening of the Chinese economy, an oversupply of inventories in the United States and an imbalance between the production and consumption of raw materials.

Experts, meanwhile, continue to make forecasts for the ruble exchange rate for the current year. The most accurate forecasters from Bloomberg and Moskovsky Komsomolets shared their thoughts on this matter the day before.

“Number 1” in the rating of the American agency is Dmitry Petrov from Nomura International Plc., who predicted an exchange rate of ₽75.15/dollar for January 2016, expects the national currency to strengthen to ₽67.00 and ₽65.00 during the starting trimester and by the end of the year, respectively.

According to the economist, the dollar/ruble pair is not far off from reaching the exchange rate bottom.

“Therefore, we will consider the possibility of buying Russian currency in the coming weeks,” Petrov admitted.

The strengthening of the domestic currency, according to Petrov, will be facilitated by factors within the Russian Federation, coupled with the influx of funds into cheap Russian assets.

Economists at Barclays Plc. Petrov and the company do not share the “ruble optimism”, declaring the vague prospects for the Russian currency in the light of extremely cheap oil, the current state of the Russian economy and the vague prospects of the PRC.

Updated on January 6, Barclays experts’ forecast for January-March is the dollar at ₽76.00 (instead of the previously announced level of ₽71.00). At the end of 2016, experts from the British Financial Institute predict “green” to be around ₽78.00.

The most successful forecaster of "MK" Ruslan Grinberg from the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences exactly a year ago he predicted the dollar exchange rate of ₽74.65 on 01/10/2016. The expert, who was wrong by only 10.9 kopecks, cited the incompetence of the government and the Central Bank as the reason for the fall of the national currency (the officials’ forecast for RUR/USD, we recall, assumed an exchange rate of ₽63.00).

The fall in production in China, plans to resume the export of Iranian oil and the excess of supply over demand, according to Greenberg, were obvious last year.

“They didn’t take it seriously,” the academician comments on the authorities’ mistakes. — They also didn’t take into account that there is a lot of pure psychology in prices. Our leaders' nerves turned out to be stronger than those of the market.

Greenberg called the Central Bank’s decision to liberalize the currency regime in a state dependent on oil prices “an adventure for which we are all now paying.”

The academician’s forecast for RUR/USD for 2016 is balancing within the range of ₽65-100.

“I’ll be more precise only if I find out that radical changes in monetary policy are being prepared,” the economist summed up.

01.10.2019

Factors against the ruble, but these are weak factors

In recent weeks, there has been some weakening of the domestic currency. This was facilitated by falling oil prices, a drop in demand from Russian exporting companies, large tax payments in the second half of September, news about the continuation of the sanctions policy against Russia, the uncertain situation with the trade war between the United States and China, and now the beginning of impeachment proceedings against the American president. The last two factors can affect the ruble indirectly - slowing down the global trend for economic development and, accordingly, reducing the demand for minerals. That is, Russian oil and gas.

However, the position of the ruble is quite strong, and analysts are talking about only a moderate decline, if not a pause or slowdown in the strengthening trend. Such assessments would be fair at oil prices of 60-65 dollars per barrel. And only a decrease to 55 or below dollars per barrel can have a significant impact on the exchange rate of the domestic currency.

"Consolidated" forecast for the coming months:
64-65 rub. for a dollar.
Some economists, however, indicate a wider corridor: 63-66 rubles. per dollar (very rarely - 67 rubles)

Interestingly, these same upper limits predict the ruble for the next year, 2020. A factor such as the US presidential elections in 2020 will also begin to play in favor of the ruble. Some experts even expect the end of the multi-year period of growth of the American currency.

01.07.2019

Prospects for stability

The Russian currency is doing quite well, at least better than the most positive experts promised it for the summer. And even the Ministry of Economy with its average annual forecast of 65.1 rubles. for the dollar it looks like we'll have to reconsider it soon. Factors that could have played against the ruble did not manifest themselves. First of all, this concerns geopolitical risks, which have now become even less significant after the meeting between Trump and Putin at the G20 summit. Everything is fine with oil prices, and the extension of the OPEC+ agreements on limiting production implies stability in this area as well. With internal macroeconomic factors, everything is unchanged, some things are working in the negative, but others are in the positive: the demand for dollars for paying dividends, upcoming tax payments, interest in Russian government bonds among non-residents... And there is also such a factor as a decrease in positions dollar to major world currencies...

True, almost none of the analysts believe in a significant strengthening of the ruble either. Very rarely they call a value below 62 rubles. per dollar by the end of the year, most experts are confident that the rate will remain within the range of 62.5 - 65 rubles. for a dollar.

In any case, for those citizens who were considering whether to transfer their savings or part of them into foreign currency, at the moment there are no significant signals for such actions.

13.04.2019

Who believed in the ruble - won

The Russian currency has been behaving surprisingly well in recent months. Numerous forecasts suggested its weakening; a significant number of citizens transferred their savings to foreign currency. But the ruble, on the contrary, has only become more significant; and given that interest rates on ruble bank deposits are many times higher, it becomes clear that those who did not believe in the ruble made a big mistake.

There is now more reason to rely on official medium-term long-term forecasts of the ruble-dollar relationship.

And they are like this:

Ministry of Finance(“basic” and “conservative”):

2019—2024 - 65.1 rub., 67.9 rub.
2025—2030 - 70.7 rub., 71.5 rub.
2030—2035 - 74.1 rub. in both cases.

Ministry of Economic Development:

2019 - 66.4 rubles.
2020 - 67.2 rubles.
2021 - up to 67.8 rubles.

Threats to the domestic currency are traditional: a possible decline in oil prices and the foreign policy situation. But so far nothing bad is expected with oil. And the introduction of new sanctions to some experts seems unlikely at all (for example, VEB Deputy Chairman Andrei Klepach believes); according to other estimates, these risks are already included in the exchange rate. It is no coincidence that the announcement of new US sanctions at the end of March caused a very short-term and insignificant change in the course.

However, there is no absolute agreement among experts. There are statements that foresee a different development of events. In particular, Raiffeisenbank analysts recently expressed the opinion that the ruble will soon begin to weaken, and recalled the concept of “currency cycles.” From their forecast it follows that it is time to buy dollars.

Own vision of the dollar exchange rate and Sberbank:

2019 - 68.5 rub.
2020 - 69 rub.