Before any project is implemented, it is selected, designed and calculated, determined, and most importantly evaluated, its effectiveness, and above all on the basis of comparing the costs of the project and the results from its implementation. For this purpose, use analysis of investment projects , or design analysis , as a set of methodological tools used to prepare and justify design decisions.

Involvement of project analysis in the investment decision-making process is necessary because the choice must be made in conditions of uncertainty.

Design analysis - this is primarily a comparison of the costs of implementing an investment project and the benefits that will be obtained from its implementation. But, since the benefits from any project and the costs of its implementation are usually numerous and not always easy to calculate, then the determination of profitability (profitability) turns into a long, multi-stage and very laborious process, covering all stages and phases of an investment project. The analysis is performed at all stages of project development and especially during a feasibility study or drawing up a business plan for an investment project.

There are the following types of analysis of investment projects:

- technical who studies the technical and economic alternatives of the project, options for its location, terms of implementation, availability and sufficiency of raw materials, labor and other resources, project costs, etc. Its task is to determine the most effective options for this investment project of equipment and technology;

- commercial (marketing), whose task is to evaluate the project from the standpoint of the end consumers of the products or services offered by the project, for example, sources and conditions for obtaining (acquiring) resources, production and sales (market capacity, promotion to it, timeliness and methods of supply, bidding, etc.). When it is carried out, the sales market of the products that will be produced after the implementation of the investment project is analyzed;

- organizational, the purpose of which is to assess the organizational, legal, political and administrative situation in the area of \u200b\u200bthe project implementation, as well as to develop recommendations in terms of management, organizational structure, staffing and training of personnel, organization of activities, etc .;

- economic, who studies problems from the standpoint of the national economy as a whole. It should be borne in mind that for individual projects, the purchase price of raw materials and materials, other resources, as well as the sale of products (goods, services) may not always serve as an acceptable measure of costs and benefits (they can restrain the tax margin or be lower than market prices due to their state regulation );

- financial, which allows, in contrast to economic, to investigate costs and results in relation to specific participants in an investment project, the purpose of which is to maximize profit or maximize profitability, but at the same time an attempt is made to include on an equal footing all important (relevant) conditions, such as the risk associated with the implementation the project, and the future structure of assets and liabilities, which will partly depend on the current investment decision;

- ecological (environmental analysis), whose task is to establish the potential damage to the environment by the project, and determine the necessary measures to mitigate and prevent possible consequences (ignoring environmental requirements can lead to irreversible consequences in the environment);

- social , whose task is to determine the suitability of project options for its users, for example, changing the number of jobs in the region, improving the living and cultural conditions of workers, their working conditions, changing the free time of workers and the population, and many others. Its implementation allows you to study the impact of the project on the external environment, to develop measures that contribute to a favorable or at least neutral attitude of the population towards the project.

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Chapter 6. STRATEGIC ASPECTS OF PROJECT ANALYSIS

6.3. Elements of project analysis and enterprise strategy

Under design analysis means the study of the issue and the implementation of appropriate justifications for the feasibility (or inexpediency) and effectiveness of the implementation of one or more investment projects. Mainly in this section, the basic principles of such an analysis are considered in relation to investment projects implemented at the enterprise.

In this paragraph, we provide a description of the main elements of the methodology for analyzing investment projects as a toolkit that allows you to effectively implement long-term plans for the operation and development of an industrial enterprise. At the same time, it is assumed that the main guidelines and strategic directions of this development have already been identified or at least outlined. In the latter case, we can talk about a variant approach. The objectives of the design analysis in this context can be formulated as follows:
· Exclude from the set of considered projects incompatible with one or another direction (variant) of the adopted strategy;
· Reflect the possible degree of uncertainty in the implementation of investment projects;
· Evaluate the load and beneficial effect of projects in qualitative (relative) or quantitative terms.

It should be borne in mind that there is a fundamental difficulty at the intersection of strategic and project analysis. Usually, strategic analysis, planning and management belong to the field of preparing decisions of a qualitative nature. It is no coincidence that figurative terminology is widely used here, in which enterprises are likened to "stars", "wild cats", "cash cows", "dogs" in the Boston matrix of strategic zones of management (Ansoff, 1989), and strategies are characterized by highlighting options for "differences "," Leadership "," concentration "(Evenko, 1996), or strategies of" midfield "," outsider "," skimming "," bitten apple "(p. 4.2.) In the analysis of competition strategies and price strategies, etc. etc. Therefore, a skillfully executed development of a firm's strategy and its structuring, in essence, is a solution at a qualitative level to the problem of choosing a course of action, the detail of which should be further carried out using various formal and informal methods and procedures for quantitatively assessing strategic options.

It is important to emphasize here that, on the one hand, it is the development of a strategy that is the most important and responsible stage in the process of making a decision about the future of industrial business, but, on the other hand, the result obtained may not always inspire the spirit of optimism - the decision may well turn out to be depressing for the future enterprise or business as a whole (for example, bankruptcy option, company liquidation, etc.).

However, all this can be known only after the intended strategy has been quantified under the most favorable conditions for its implementation (in the part that depends on the firm's management).

Thus, each strategy can correspond to many options for its implementation during the period under consideration, i.e., in other words, many projects for implementing the strategy.

Investments are usually classified into two large groups: 1) financial investmentsrelated to the speculative “game” in the stock market - buying and selling financial instruments (GKO, OFZ, etc.), and 2) real investmentassociated with investing in real assets of enterprises or purchasing their shares. The latter are often also divided into straightwhen at least 10% of the shares are acquired, i.e. investments are made "seriously" with the aim of participating in the management of enterprises, and portfolio investments when less than 10% of the shares are bought. Bearing in mind the development strategies of industrial firms, we restrict ourselves here to a) analysis of investment measures only of a long-term nature; b) analysis of only real direct investments. It is in this respect that the phrase “strategic aspects” included in the title of the chapter should be understood.

We emphasize here that if the strategy can be (and often happens) described in qualitative, relatively fuzzy terms that allow for an ambiguous quantitative interpretation, then the investment project should be described from the quantitative side rather strictly, i.e. what should be the result of the project, what are its quantitative indicators and with the help of what technologies this result will be achieved, what resource costs will be necessary and when, what situation will develop in the sphere of using the result (for example, if we are talking about the production of products, what will be prices for products and resources in a particular period of time within the billing period), what measures for the development of the enterprise will be necessary and when, what are the parameters of the uncontrollable "external environment" (world prices for resources and products, rating of the country and firm, loan rates , dynamics of exchange rates, inflation, etc.) will be observed, etc.

Such "details" as the type of decision-making and implementation mechanism, the accounting policy of the enterprise, etc. should also be indicated.

It should be noted that all the specified quantitative characteristics do not have to be specified unambiguously within the framework of the investment project (some of them can be specified as random variables with known distribution laws, others as indefinite ones with known boundaries, and still others as controllable ones that allow optimization in certain frames, etc.). Moreover, an adaptive formulation of the tasks of project analysis is quite possible, when the characteristics of investment measures, firm activities, etc. are formed in a predetermined way, but depending on the values \u200b\u200bof "feedbacks" determined in the process of real functioning or modeling. Accordingly, the set of options subject to design analysis can be rigidly formed at the very formulation of the problem, or a rule for the formation of these options can be specified.

Naturally, when evaluating a particular strategy, deep optimization of implementation options and their parameters is assumed.

An investment project (even a relatively small-scale and implemented at one enterprise), therefore, is a rather complex structure, the analysis of which is multi-phase, multi-aspect, multi-stage and, as a rule, multi-stage in nature (Figure 6.3.1). A detailed consideration of individual elements of this structure was carried out, for example, in works (Arslanova, Livshits, 1995; Vilensky, Livshits, Smolyak, 1998; Livshits, 1994).

Figure: 6.3.1. General outline of strategic project analysis

It can be seen from this diagram that the structure of the project analysis in a certain sense is consistent with the structure of the strategy development process (for example, there are components of the investment and financial strategy, social strategy, etc., similar to the name of the corresponding aspects of the analysis). However, and this is essential, the project analysis is not limited only to establishing the fact of the said agreement (or, in another language, to the fulfillment of a set of conditions accumulated in the strategy). The project analysis allows, firstly, to build up the "strategic skeleton" with the "meat" of specific implementing actions (measures) and, secondly, to assess the feasibility of implementing the investment project under consideration and, therefore (if we allow suboptimization, i.e. optimization of the composition and parameters of the project components), the corresponding strategy.

The main tasks that have to be solved within the framework of the project analysis include:
1) assessment of the fundamental feasibility of the project, i.e. verification of compliance with all necessary technical, environmental, social, financial and other restrictions within its framework;
2) assessment of the project's compliance with the enterprise strategyon which it is implemented;
3) assessment of the project's compliance with the investor's strategy;
4) assessment of the absolute economic efficiency of the project, i.e. determination of indicators of the economic effect that the project can bring;
5) about assessment of the comparative effectiveness of a group of projects, i.e. finding out which of the proposed competing (alternative) projects or project options is more effective;
6) choice from a variety of investment projects (or their variants) the most effective.

In general, this choice can be made from a variety of projects (options), some of them can be in different relationships (projects can be independent, complementary and mutually exclusive, alternative).

Ultimately, the project analysis allows not only to determine the attitude to the existing potentially implemented projects, but also to adjust the projects, to create their effective combinations in a specific situation. Typically, the design analysis is personalized, i.e. is performed from the point of view of one or several participants in the "investment configuration" - an investor, recipient, consumer of project results, etc. The goal is often taken to maximize the cumulative effect for the relevant economic entity (or their group), and the effect itself is determined by comparing the results and costs associated with the project during its life cycle (life cycle).

The procedure for conducting a project analysis is based on a number of theoretically grounded and proven principles for assessing the effectiveness of investments, the general scheme of which is shown in Fig. 6.3.2.

Among these principles are methodological, methodological and operational.

Methodological- these are the most general (not necessarily related to the economic nature of objects and projects being implemented) principles of rational behavior and decision-making; methodical - more specific principles that are based on the presence of a significant economic component in the costs and results of the project; operating rooms - principles that mainly provide the assessment process using the information and computing base of the analysis.

The implementation of these principles in determining the economic efficiency of investment projects should be directly "inscribed" into the main calculation scheme - the construction of cash flows, in which at each time step the inflows and outflows of money associated with the project's creation, operation and liquidation of relevant objects, non-operating cash flows, etc.

Figure: 6.3.2. Principles of Strategic Design Analysis

It should be borne in mind that the specific ways of implementing these principles are significantly influenced by the socio-economic "environment" of both the project and the enterprise where it is being implemented. For Russian conditions, this environment is often aggressive or unstable.

Depending on the level of decision-making, a particular financialand public economic design analysis. In the first case, the benefits of the project are considered from the perspective of a private investor; in the second - from the standpoint of society as a whole; as you know, these benefits may not be the same. Consider first the elements financial project analysis.

1. Comparison of performance indicators across projects

Comparing projects in financial analysis is a complex multi-criteria task. Even after the criteria are formed and calculated, different ordering of projects according to the size of the criteria can only confuse the optimal investment choice, since quite often there is a situation in which one project is preferable to another according to one of the criteria, but worse - according to another. Therefore, one has to use some traditional and accepted rules for evaluating projects in such situations. The criteria most often used in calculating project performance are the following:
NPV (net present value) - net present value;
В / С (benefit-cost ratio) - coefficient of benefit-costs; profitability index;
IRR (internal rate of return) - internal rate of return.

Since these three criteria are based on a unified theory for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects, one can expect the following relationships between the criteria for evaluating projects (here r- interest rate):

NPV		IRR

In some cases, the numerical values \u200b\u200bof these criteria (provided that the indicated ratios are fulfilled) can create a situation non-transitivity of choice projects. For the sake of definiteness in the design analysis, it is considered that the NPV criterion is dominant, the most significant. This is determined by its economic essence: it directs the investor to maximize net benefits. However, in a number of cases (for example, when investors are primarily interested in maximizing the B / C or IRR criteria), it is possible to introduce into a specific project analysis a different system of preferences for these criteria.

2. Choosing a discount rate.

An important question is the choice of the parameter r (interest rates) that is used in design analysis. There are two common mistakes in design analysis: confusion in choosing the appropriate interest rate; inconsistency in the use of it.

The sequence is that the analysis should use the same interest rate that was used in calculating the project's efficiency. Choosing the same interest rate r in the calculations is due to the following considerations.

This indicator represents the specific cost of the investor's capital per unit of his investment, such as the level of return on T-bills or the base rate ("prime rate") for a private firm. With or without inflation, the value of money can fall over time. Therefore, in the calculations there is a fundamental possibility of using interest rates of two types: real (after deducting inflation); current or nominal (including inflation).

If constant prices are used in the calculations, then the real rate should be applied (since inflation is excluded in constant prices). In contrast, the current rate is the rate of return from the point of view of an investor in the private market, so it includes inflation; but at the same time prices should be market prices, i.e. contain an inflationary component. This logic (Table 6.3.1) should be applied when calculating the discounted cash flow; mixing real rates with current rates leads to a large distortion of income and costs when comparing different discounted flows.

The choice of the value of the discount rate is dictated by the following considerations. As already indicated, a distinction is made between project analysis carried out in the private and public sectors. The private (financial) sector assumes the use of the discount rate prevailing in the financial markets (for example, the yield on T-bills). At the same time, the private discount rate can be presented in real (excluding inflation) and current (taking into account inflation) terms. The transition from one rate to another is expressed by the ratio:

current rate \u003d real rate + inflation.

However, for the conditions of economic analysis (public sector), it may turn out to be unsuitable, since it does not reflect the urgency of the capital given in time (it is either too high or too low in relation to the urgent value that society attaches to money). In this case, instead of the private rate, an alternative public rate is used, which is often the 10% World Bank rate. In addition, when determining the discount rate, one should take into account the uncertainty and risk of the future (Vilensky, Livshits, Smolyak, 1998).

3. Coordination of various projects in terms of time and resources

In the event that an enterprise involves the implementation of several projects, it is necessary to take into account their mutual influence and to quantify the impact of priority projects on assets in order to purposefully use the effect obtained in projects of the second stage. This will allow you to get significant savings on your own and borrowed resources. In this case, the development of a financial and investment strategy should be carried out on the basis of optimization complexprojects with the inclusion of the timing of their implementation and available financial resources.

We now turn to the presentation of the main points of economic project analysis.

Project analysis from the standpoint of the social value of the stage being carried out involves the solution of the same tasks as financial analysis. However, the following features arise here.

In addition to economic indicators (such as NPV, profitability index, internal rate of return, etc.), indicators of the social sphere and the ecological environment should be considered. In this case, the dimension of the problem, the number of analysis criteria increase. In addition, if environmental indicators can be expressed in quantitative terms (for example, maximum permissible pollution standards), then social indicators most often require the use of the method of expert assessments.

There are peculiarities in estimating discounted flows. As already indicated, the real (excluding inflation) 10% rate of the World Bank is taken here.

In economic analysis, the role of the task of determining the complex impact of various projects increases significantly, since only after considering the whole picture as a whole, it is possible to correctly evaluate each project separately. The task of determining a package of investment programs is rather complicated and, depending on the specific situation, can be solved in different ways. Our next task is to describe specific methods for quantifying the effectiveness of investment projects to implement the strategy of enterprises.

Table 6.3.1. Methodological principles for the application of real and current interest rates in project analysis

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When forming the goal of the project, SMART principles are applied. This allows you to set a clearly formulated, specific, achievable goal with clearly defined timelines. A high-quality project analysis allows you to avoid launching an ineffective concept and identify potential risks that will need to be compensated.

Pre-project analysis and its meaning

The majority of foreign, and recently Russian, companies, before starting a full-fledged design, prefer to receive as much information as possible about how profitable the investment idea proposed for implementation will be. To do this, at an early stage, analytical work is carried out, called Due Diligence. Sometimes this is done on their own, but for professional assessment there are specialized organizations with qualified experienced specialists and their own methodology of work.

Pre-design analysis is a functional study carried out at the earliest design phase, as well as a comparison of data on the expected functions and appearance of a product, object, space (environment). In addition, the availability on the market of analogues of the planned products, production methods and technologies, the use of which will be necessary, is preliminary considered.

At the same stage, you can get a general concept of the economic and financial potential of the concept, social significance, location of the construction object from different points of view (infrastructural, aesthetic, sanitary and hygienic, logistic).

The main objectives of this phase are:

• General analysis of the idea (prerequisites, composition of participants, support by government agencies and financial organizations, availability of a preliminary work schedule).
• Evaluation of the viability of an undertaking, an investment object, its ability to make a profit in the future (rate of return, payback period, financial stability).
• Studying the potential of the client for whom the investment project is designed (market needs and product competitiveness, studying the competitive environment).
• Search for potential investors and funding sources.
• Working out the terms of lending or investment.
• Preliminary consideration of possible risks (at the investment, production and final phase) and the ways of their insurance.
• Determination of required technologies and materials, search for suppliers and partner organizations.

Pre-design work consists of two consecutive stages: collection of information (research) and its methodological processing. The necessary information can be obtained by studying various documentation, incl. archival, open sources of information, opinion polls.

The result of the preliminary research is a detailed report. It contains the conclusions of experts on the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed idea, the justification for investing in it, various options for implementing the plan. In addition to the textual description, the report may include graphs, diagrams, tables, statistical material. If a pre-project assessment has been carried out, and its conclusions are positive, then it is much easier to find an investor for the implementation of such a project.

Pre-project analysis in construction and architecture is especially in demand. Its essence in this case is to choose a site with the best conditions for the construction of a residential building, which, together with the advantages of the housing itself, will provide good sales at high prices. Therefore, before starting to create project documentation, it makes sense to professionally study the demographic component (population, birth rate, housing), the presence of associated social infrastructure (schools, hospitals, kindergartens, shops) and green areas, transport accessibility. Also important are the number of storeys and the design of the future building, the landscapes that open from the panorama windows.

Principles of design analysis

Since the analytical work and the study of the starting conditions of the concept can be carried out both at the pre-investment and at the design stage, confusion often arises regarding the concept of the essence of the pre-project and design analysis. Most often, we mean the same actions, only in the first case they are limited to a short period of time before the start of the design, and in the second, they can be used at each phase of the project life cycle. At the same time, going through the steps, from the pre-investment phase to the working documentation, the accuracy of solving the assigned tasks increases.

To prevent preparatory work from becoming a waste of time and money, the design review should adhere to the following principles:

• Consistency. It is important to take into account all the main factors that can affect the results of the participants and the level of costs. Therefore, in order to create a coherent system of relationships between all participants, it is necessary to prescribe all the mechanisms for implementing the idea (economic and organizational).
• Complexity. The use of different types of expertise, the goal of which should be a comprehensive report or a complete business plan.
• Calculation of the consequences of the implementation of the initiative. Economic, environmental and social consequences are calculated. If quantitative accounting is not possible, then an expert assessment is carried out.
• Use of current international management standards in work.
• Compliance of the concept with the general investment policy or development strategy of the company, region or state.
• The presence of a positive economic and social effect.
• Sufficient quality of project documentation for drawing conclusions and drawing up a business plan.

When conducting a project analysis, the estimated costs of implementing an idea are compared with the expected benefits from its implementation, while a large number of influencing factors (internal and external) turn this process into a multi-stage and time-consuming process. The analysis covers all stages of the project, is carried out at all its stages, first of all, during business planning and drawing up a feasibility study.

Types of design analysis

The main types of design analysis used in practice include:

• technical;
• organizational;
• commercial;
• economic;
• financial;
• social;
• ecological.

Technical the analysis studies the options for placement, alternatives (technical and economic) of the project, the availability and availability of the necessary resources (labor, raw materials), costs. An important point is understanding the scope of the project and the stage-by-stage terms of its execution, a sketch of the work schedule. Such analytics are designed to determine the most efficient way to implement this idea in terms of technology. At the same time, the level of unforeseen expenses after such a study should not exceed 5-15% of the total cost, depending on the complexity and uniqueness of the idea.

Organizational... Considers the current administrative, legal, political situation around the developed idea, based on the results, a set of measures is proposed to improve the situation. Recommendations are developed regarding the organizational structure, management, selection and training of personnel. At this stage, tasks are distributed among the participants in relation to instructions and regulations, their strengths and weaknesses are studied (personnel qualifications, material and technical and financial support).

Commercial... This is an assessment of an undertaking from the point of view of the end user of a service or product: the acquisition of resources, the production and sale of goods. The capacity of the potential sales market (domestic and export), methods of product promotion, methods of timely deliveries, competitive bidding, the impact of the appearance of a new product on the price level for it are studied. Measures are proposed to neutralize possible losses from a drop in prices for products after a new player enters the market.

Economic... He takes a comprehensive approach to the problem, taking into account all the features of the state economy, including issues of taxation, state regulation of certain industries, etc. The study applies the estimated prices, taking into account the distortions caused by imperfect markets, taking into account not only the commercial, but also the social effectiveness of the initiative.

Financial... Examines the costs and results obtained in relation to each specific participant in the investment project. The purpose of the analysis is to find a balance between maximizing income and taking into account potential risks, as well as the future structure of liabilities and assets.

Social... Considers the influence of the concept on the external environment both from the positive (creation of jobs, improvement of living conditions, population growth) and from the negative side (deterioration of living conditions, negative impact on people's health). Options for measures to improve the attitude of the population to the project are proposed. The following areas are being studied:

• demographic indicators and sociocultural characteristics of the population;
• structuring the population in the area of \u200b\u200bimplementation of the plan (the number and composition of families, the availability of the necessary labor resources and access to them);
• compliance of the project with the peculiarities of local culture and religion;
• the need for mutual obligations between residents and project initiators.

The complexity of social analysis lies in the fact that formal methods are poorly applicable here, and there are no standard methods.

In each case, decisions are made based on agreements. At the same time, successful social dialogue can significantly increase the effectiveness of the project.

Ecological. The potential damage to the environment is assessed, and measures are proposed to prevent or mitigate it. To do this, the estimate must include funds for measures to protect environmental well-being. On average, this is about 3% of the cost, but sometimes this figure reaches 10%. Not all environmental issues are calculated in quantitative terms, therefore, qualitative indicators are often used, such as the effect of certain substances emitted by production on the health of people, animals or plants. If the environmental analysis is not taken seriously enough, it can lead to irreversible changes in the state of the environment, for which the owner of the facility may be held liable.

Fundamentals and tools for design analysis

Topic 1

The concept of the project.PROJECT ANALYSIS IN THE MANAGEMENT OF INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES

Investments – these are monetary funds, property, securities invested in objects of entrepreneurial activity in order to make a profit in the future period or achieve another useful effect.

The concept of investment (from Lat. Investio) means investment in various sectors of the economy. Investment is something that is saved "for tomorrow" in order to have something to consume in the future.

One part of the investment is consumer goods that are not used in the current period, but are deposited in stock. Another part of investment is resources that are directed to expand production.

Investments are characterized by features :

Investments pursue the goal of obtaining certain benefits in the form of profits, income, economic benefits or other useful effect.

Anyone who invests is ready for the sake of these benefits to give up the current consumption of certain resources.

From the point of view of the investment object, share :

Financial investments;

Real investment.

Forms of real investment :

Acquisition of integral property complexes.

New construction.

Reconstruction.

Modernization.

Updating certain types of equipment.

Investing in intangible assets.

Investing the increment in inventories of tangible current assets.

Investment project - a plan or program of investment to achieve the goals; a system of organizational, legal, analytical, technical, economic and financial decisions necessary to justify and carry out work on the implementation of the project.

The concept of "investment project" is used in two senses:

as an activity, an event, involving the implementation of a set of any actions that ensure the achievement of certain goals or obtaining certain results;

as a system of organizational and financial documents required for the implementation of any action.

An investment project is a generally accepted form of preparation of long-term capital-forming investment decisions.

Investment project - substantiation of economic feasibility, volume and term of capital investments, including the necessary design and estimate documentation.

The organizational and economic mechanism for the implementation of the investment project includes:

regulations;

obligations assumed by the participants in the framework of the project;

conditions for financing investments;

investment project implementation management system;

The concept of "project" includes:

Focus on achieving specific results;

Coordination of the implementation of certain, related, actions;

Extension in time with a definite beginning and end.

From the point of view of a systems approach, a project is a process of transition from an initial state to a final one, that is, to a result, with the participation of a number of restrictions and mechanisms.

The project as a process of transition of the system from the initial state to the final state.

Project management - methodology for organizing, planning and coordinating human and material resources throughout the project life cycle.

Distinctive features of an investment project:

a clear formulation of the goal and tasks to be solved;

limited duration of the project in time;

availability of a budget;

limited resources required;

uniqueness, novelty;

complexity;

legal and organizational support;

Classification of an investment project based on:

type of project - depending on the field of activity in which the project is being implemented (organizational, technological, economic, social, mixed);

scale of the project - monoproject, multiproject, megaproject;

type of project - according to the nature of the subject area of \u200b\u200bthe project (innovative, educational, mixed);

project duration - according to the duration of the project cycle implementation period (short-term - up to 1 year, medium-term - 1 - 3 years, long-term - over 3 years).

Depending on the type, projects can be classified as follows:

socio-technical, aimed at increasing the productivity of workers and improving working conditions;

organizational and managerial, contributing to the improvement of the organization of production and an increase in the productivity of management personnel;

informational, related to the improvement of information flows and their automation;

integrated, consisting of separate elements of previous types of projects;

3. Project life cycle - this is the period during which the preparation and implementation of the investor's investment intentions takes place. It is divided into phases, phases into stages, stages into stages.

There are four phases of project development:

Formation of investment intention (development of project concepts);

Project development;

Project implementation;

Completion of the project.

Thus, an investment project is a set of actions that an investor takes in order to implement his capital growth plan (a documented investment plan)

The project life cycle includes steps:

Formation of investment intentions;

Development of project concepts;

Pre-investment analysis of the project;

Creation of a turnkey investment facility and preparation for the start of its operation;

Payback period of the project (operation of the investment project);

Obtaining net profit from the project;

Completion or liquidation of an investment project.

4. Subject of design analysis – methodological foundations and practical techniques for the development, examination and evaluation of the effectiveness of an investment project in order to make an investment decision.

In this way, design analysis -a set of methodological and practical examples, justification and assessment of the feasibility of the project.

The analysis of the investment project is carried out taking into account the factors:

the complexity of the presentation of the investment process;

taking into account the relationship of the project with external conditions;

integrated assessment of project performance based on the ratio of results and costs associated with them;

taking into account future project uncertainty and potential risks;

application of the methodology for bringing cash flows to a single accounting;

taking into account the social and behavioral aspects of the project;

Design analysis

Phases Stages Aspects Stages

investing	preliminary justification	technical	Performance assessment for the project as a whole
operation	feasibility study	economic	Evaluation of effectiveness for each of the participants
liquidation	ongoing performance assessment	financial
	post hoc performance evaluation	commercial
		social
		economic
		institutional

Thus, project analysis is the compatibility of methods for evaluating an investment project within the framework of project analysis, the following tasks are solved:

Project feasibility

Project performance

Project efficiency

Optimization of the project (choosing the most appropriate option)

Principles for evaluating the effectiveness of an investment project:

Methodological principles:

The effectiveness of the project.

Adequacy and objectivity.

Correctness.

Consistency.

Complexity.

Limited resources.

Unlimited needs.

Methodological principles:

Consistency.

Limited controllability.

Incomplete information.

Capital structure.

Operating principles:

Modeling.

Computer support.

Interactive mode.

General sequence of design analysis

Thus, the general scheme of design analysis includes the following stages:

Preliminary analysis of an investment idea,

Identification of the project (scope of the project, how it is implemented, what conditions are taken into account),

Institutional analysis,

Analysis of the technical base of the project,

Commercial analysis of the project,

Social analysis,

Economic analysis,

Risk analysis,

Formation of a comprehensive assessment of an investment project.

Topic 2

Investment project development

Plan

1. Components of the project.

2. Development of the project concept.

3. The sequence of project development.

1. The project should be considered as a set of such components:

economic description - a business plan and materials for its justification;

technical documentation;

technological documentation;

contract support;

expert support - a set of expert conclusions, assessments and opinions of specialists.

2. The main reasons for the appearance of an investment idea (sources of the idea):

Unmet demand

Surplus resources

Entrepreneurship Initiative,

Interests of creditors for the purpose of obtaining income.

In the process of forming the investment concept of the project, the following questions should be answered:

Purpose and object of investment,

Characteristics and volume of project output,

Payback period,

Project profitability,

Purpose, capacity and characteristics of the investment object,

Intended sources and schemes of financing (own, borrowed).

Main characteristics of the project:

Availability of alternative technical solutions,

Demand for project products,

Duration of the project,

Evaluation of the price level for the products of the project,

The ability to export project products,

The ratio of costs and benefits of the project.

3. After formulating the business idea of \u200b\u200bthe project, the question arises: is the enterprise in question capable of realizing this idea in principle?

For the purposes of preliminary analysis, the following two criteria are used:

Maturity has grown

The competitiveness of the enterprise (its position in the market).

Sequence of project development :

Shaping investment ideas,

Defining the goals and objectives of the project,

Development of project concepts,

Planning concepts,

Marketing analysis,

Marketing strategy development,

Forecasting financial flows,

Development of a financial plan,

Risk level assessment,

Development of an organizational plan,

Development of a production program.

Justification of the effectiveness of the project during the project analysis provides:

Calculation of the total profitability of the project,

Justification of the rate of discounting and bringing cash flows to a single equivalent,

Selection of project evaluation criteria,

Calculation of the net present value of the project,

Calculation of the payback period of the investment.

Interrelation of the sections of the business plan of the project in the process of its development

Topic 3

INVESTMENT NEEDS OF THE PROJECT AND SOURCES OF THEIR FINANCING

Plan

1. General scheme of investment analysis.

2. The structure and characteristics of the required investments.

3. Source of investment financing.

1. Upon the formalization of the business idea of \u200b\u200bthe project, it is necessary to make a decision with what composition and amount of funds it is possible to implement this idea - the project, as well as where to get the money in order to acquire the necessary basic working capital, as well as analyze what the return on the invested funds will be.

Investment analysis should be divided into three blocks:

Establishing the investment needs of the project.

Selection and search for sources of financing and determination of the cost of the attracted capital.

Forecasting the financial return on the investment project in the form of cash flows and evaluating the effectiveness of the investment project by comparing the projected cash flows with the initial investment volume.

2 . All investment needs of an enterprise can be divided into three groups:

direct investments:

in fixed and current assets,

purchase of new equipment,

modernization of fixed assets,

provision of stocks.

Associated investments:

investments in objects geographically and functionally related to the direct object,

into the non-production sphere,

in environmental protection,

social infrastructure.

Investment in research and development (research and development):

Devices, equipment,

Laboratories.

The entire set of investment needs is drawn up in the form of a special investment flow schedule.

Example:

Investment needs	(thousand UAH)	(thousand UAH)	(thousand UAH)
Construction and reconstruction
Equipment and mechanisms
Installation and adjustment of equipment
Licenses and technologies
Design work
Training
Investments in working capital
Associated costs
Unforeseen costs
Total investment

3. In general, all sources of financial resources of an enterprise can be represented in the following sequence:

own financial resources and on-farm reserves,

borrowed funds,

attracted financial resources received from the sale of shares, shares and other contributions of members of labor collectives, citizens, legal entities,

monetary funds centralized by associations of enterprises,

extra-budgetary funds,

state budget funds,

funds of foreign investors.

An enterprise - when deciding whether to invest in its own investment project, offers the value of this capital at least equal to the cost of an alternative investment of money.

Structure of borrowed financial resources :

Borrowed funds :

a) bank loan;

b) courts of legal entities;

c) placement of bonds;

d) leasing;

The main difference between an owner and a mercenary of financial resources is that interest (%) payments are included in gross costs and are deducted before taxes, while dividends are paid on profits, which are a source of additional benefits for the enterprise.

Example: The company has an investment requirement of $ 2,000,000 and has two financing options - issuing ordinary shares and obtaining a loan. Both alternatives cost 20%. The investment project, regardless of the source of financing, brings in income of $ 8,500,000, the cost of production (excluding interest payments) is $ 5,600,000. Comparison of funding sources.

	Funding by property instruments	Credit financing
Revenues from sales
Production cost
Interest payment
Gross profit
Income tax (30%)
Dividend
Net profit

Conclusions, it is more profitable for an enterprise to attract borrowed funds.

Topic 4

FINANCIAL - MATHEMATICAL BASIS OF INVESTMENT DESIGN

Plan

1. The concept of the value of money in time.

2. Methods of accounting for the time factor in financial transactions: accumulation, discounting.

3. Simple and compound interest.

4. Influence of inflation on the determination of the present and future value of money.

1. The concept of the value of money in time is based on the basic principle: The dollar is now worth more than the dollar that will be received in the future, for example, in a year, since it can be invested and this will bring additional profit to its owner (investor).

The "golden" rule of business is:

"The hryvnia received today is more than the hryvnia received tomorrow."

The approach to assessing the effectiveness of investment projects is based on this principle.

The principle of the value of money in time, gives rise to the concept of the value of money over time, the essence of which: the value of money changes over time, taking into account the rate of profitability in the money market and the securities market. The rate of interest on loans and stock returns are used as the rate of return.

The inequality of two sums of the same value (S0 \u003d S1), but different in time of receipt (t0 ≠ t1) is due to a number of reasons:

Individuals prefer immediate consumption over deferred;

The available amount of money can be invested and after a while bring income;

The future is always associated with uncertainty; therefore, future receipts are always more risky than current ones.

Even with a small inflation, the purchasing power of money decreases over time, thus, according to the principle of the time value of money, today's cash receipts are more valuable than future ones and, accordingly, future cash receipts have less value than current ones.

Two important consequences follow from this principle of the time value of money:

the need to take into account the time factor when conducting financial transactions, especially in long-term investments;

incorrectness (from the point of view of investment analysis) of summing monetary values \u200b\u200brelated to different periods of time.

2. The time factor is taken into account using accumulation and discounting methods.

The essence of these methods is to bring monetary amounts related to different time periods to the required point in time in the present or future. The interest rate (interest rate - r) - the price paid for the use of borrowed funds. However, in this case, the interest rate is:

as a measure of the rate of return on financial transactions, calculated as the ratio of the profit received to the volume of invested funds, that is, in percent or fractions of units

as an alternative cost of capital.

Accumulation - an increase in the original amount as a result of the accrual of interest. The essence of the accrual method is to determine the amount that can be obtained from a certain initial (current) amount as a result of financial transactions. Thus, the accumulation method allows you to determine the future value (FV), the current amount (present value - PV) after a certain period of time (n), based on a given interest rate (r).

Increase by simple interest.

FV - future value,

PV - present value,

n is the number of periods (years),

r is the interest rate.

The duration of short-term operations is sometimes less than a year.

t – number of days of transactions;

B – the number of days in a year is 360, 365, 366.

A notional fiscal year consists of 360 days.

Example: The buyer was granted a loan under the guarantee of payment for products in the amount of UAH 10 thousand. After 30 days, the loan rate is 30% per annum. What will be the payment amount under the contract?

= \u003d 10250 UAH

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 (t)

Increase - a gradual increase in the amount invested by adding the amount of interest payments to its original size.

Discounting is finding the current (at the current time) size of the amount of money at its known value in the future using the interest rate (r), called the discount rate.

T. rate is the process of bringing the amount of money that appears in the future to the present moment in time.

t - time interval,

PV is the real value of money,

FV is the future value of money.

Thus, discounting the future cash flow (FV) and therefore finding its current value (PV) means subtracting from the future cash flow the income that will bring investment of the current value (PV).

Discount rate

The difference FV - PV is called a discount or discount, and r is a decursive interest rate.

Example: What price will an investor pay for a zero-coupon bond with a par value of 100 units? and maturity in 90 days if the required rate of return is 12%.

Denomination - the amount of debt or debt operation.

monetary units

Thus, as a result of the discounting process, it is determined how much should be invested now in order to receive, for example, $ 1000 in 5 years.

3. Let the sum of money Ris called the main invested for a period of t at simple interest at a rate i, that is, at the end of the specified period, the investor will return his capital R and will receive a profit as a percentage of the principal amount of the delivery i.

I – simple interest,

i – interest rate for the period,

t – period corresponding to the interest rate,

P – the main investment.

Example: 100 thousand UAH issued on credit for 6 months at a rate of, a) 2% per month, b) 8% per annum (). Find simple interest on the specified amount.

A) thousand UAH

B) thousand UAH

If is the principal amount (bank deposit or loan, and is the accrued interest on this capital, then is the accumulated value of the original amount R).

Accumulated value;

- simple interest;

- ships for a certain period.

Example: Let the investor place 1000 UAH on the deposit. at an interest rate of 40% per annum in a year will have:

1000 + 400 \u003d 1400 UAH.

In two years:

1000 + 400 + 400 \u003d 1800 UAH.

Accrual in interest rates

- the total number of periods during which the interest rate is valid.

Discounting at design interest.

Example: The investor is going to accumulate UAH 50,000. during the year by means of a bank deposit, which offers a monthly calculation of simple interest at a monthly interest rate of 5%. How much should be deposited?

\u003d 31 250 UAH

Example: A bill of exchange, draft, issued in the amount of UAH 100 thousand. with payment on a bill on April 25. The holder of the bill of exchange took it into account at the bank on 11 February. At this point, the discount rate on promissory notes in this bank was 12%. Determine the amount of the discount that the bank made at the time of the bill of exchange and the amount that the holder of the bill received.

Comparing the dates of accounting and redemption of the promissory note, we determine that there are 73 days left to maturity. Thus, the discount on the promissory note will be

uAH, and the owner of the bill will receive

Compound interest.

Compound interest is the amount of income that is generated as a result of investing money, provided that the amount of accrued simple interest is not paid at the end of each period, but is added to the amount of the main contribution and in the next payment period itself brings income.

- compound interest;

- the present value of the future value of money.

- when the interest rate changes.

4. Inflation is characterized by two parameters:

t - the inflation rate (in percent or fractions of units) is the percentage increase in a certain average price (for example, the price of a consumer basket):

I - inflation index: I \u003d 1+ t .

The rate and inflation index are tied to a specific period of time.

Xi- volume і - th period,

Pi0 - unit price і - th resource at the beginning of the period,

Pi - unit price і - th resource at the end of the period.

Inflation impact analysis can be performed for two options:

inflation rate is different for individual components of resources (input and output),

the inflation rate is the same for different cost and cost components.

Adjustment of the accrued value for inflation is made using the formula

where is the real future value of money,

Fn - the nominal future value of money, adjusted for inflation.

Inflation index.

If r- the nominal interest rate, which takes into account inflation, then the calculation of the real amount of money is made according to the formula:

- investment size.

That is, the nominal amount of money is reduced in times in accordance with the decrease in the purchasing power of money.

Example: Let the nominal interest rate adjusted for inflation be 50%, and the expected inflation rate per year is 40%. It is necessary to determine the real future value of the investment volume of UAH 200,000.

Thousand. UAH

If in the process of real development of the economy the inflation rate is 55%, then

thousand UAH

Thus, inflation eats up both the profitability and part of the principal amount of the investment, and the investment process becomes unprofitable.

In general, when analyzing the ratio of the nominal interest rate to the inflation rate, three cases are possible:

r \u003d T: no increase in the real value of funds occurs, since the increase in their future value is absorbed by inflation;

r\u003e T: the real future value of cash increases despite inflation;

The relationship between nominal and real interest rates.

Example: Let the investor be promised a real profitability of his investments in accordance with an interest rate of 10%. This means that when investing 1,000 UAH. in a year he will receive 1,000 × (1 + 0.10) \u003d 1,100 UAH. If the inflation rate is 25%, then the investor adjusts this amount in accordance with the rate: 1.100 × (1 + 0.25) \u003d 1.375 UAH.

So if rpis the real interest rate of profitability, and T - inflation rate, then the nominal rate of profitability will be written using the formula:

If the inflation rate is low then:

Topic 5

Cash flow

Pla

1. Concept and characteristics of cash flow.

2. Scheme of investment of the process in time.

3. Features of calculating the project cash flow.

$1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

The element of cash flow is usually denoted CF k (Cash Flow), where k - the number of the period in which the cash flow is considered. The present value of the cash flow is indicated PV (Present Value) and the future value is FV (Future Value).

The future value of cash flow, for all items from 0 before m we get:

Example : After introducing measures to reduce administrative costs, the company expects to save $ 1,000 at the end of each year. The saved money is supposed to be placed on a deposit account (at 5% per annum) so that in 5 years the accumulated money can be used for investment. How much will be in the company's bank account?

Thus, in 5 years the company will accumulate $ 5 526, which will be able to invest.

Thus, cash flows are the flow of payments (cash), which is understood as the distribution over time, the movement of funds arising from the economic activity of the entity.

In addition, cash flows are understood as a time-distributed sequence of payments and receipts generated by an asset, portfolio of assets or an operation of an investment project.

a) b)

where - cash outflow - cash inflow

a) with ordinary cash flow

b) with an extraordinary cash flow

Thus, an investment project P represents the following model:

P =  IC i , CF k , n, r ,

where IC i - investment in the i-th year, i \u003d 1,2,… .., m;

CF k - cash inflow in the kth year, k \u003d 1,2,… .., n;

n - the duration of the project;

r - discount rate.

It is customary to associate cash flow with each investment project, the elements of which are either net outflows (Net Cash Outflow) or net cash inflows (Net Cash Inflow).

Under net outflow tok-m year means the excess of the current cash expenditures on the project over the current cash receipts (with the opposite ratio, there is a net inflow).

A stream of payments, all of whose elements are distributed over time so that the intervals between any two consecutive payments are constant, is called a financial rent or annuity.

An annuity has two important properties:

1) all of its n-elements are equal to each other: CF1 \u003d CF2 ... \u003d CFn \u003d CF;

2) the time intervals between the payment (receipt of amounts) of CF are the same.

The future value of a simple annuity is the sum of all its constituent payments with accrued interest at the end of the transaction period.

The present value of the cash flow is understood as the sum of all its constituent payments, discounted at the time of the commencement of the operation.

The current value of the annuity is as follows:

The expression in square brackets is a factor equal to the current value of the annuity of one currency.

Dividing the modern value PV cash flow for the specified multiplier, you can get the amount of periodic payment of an equivalent annuity.

Simple annuity discounting scheme.

Example :

The pension fund must make annual payments of 100 currency units over three years. What amount will provide these payments if the rate on term deposits is currently 8% per annum.

0 100 100 100

The total amount is 257.7.

The criteria used in the analysis of investment activity can be divided into two groups depending on whether or not they take into account the time parameter:

1.Based on discounted estimates (“dynamic” methods):

Net Present Value - NPV (Net Present Value);

Return on Investment Index - PI (Profitability Index);

Internal rate of return - IRR (Internal Rate of Return);

Modified Internal Rate of Return - MIRR (Modified Internal Rate of Return);

Discounted Payback Period (DPP).

2. Based on accounting estimates (“statistical” methods):

Payback period - PP (Payback Period);

Investment efficiency ratio - ARR (Accounted Rate of Return).

Topic 6

Investment project efficiency criteria and methods of their assessment

Plan

1. General characteristics of methods for assessing the effectiveness of the project.

2. Method of discounted payback period.

3. Method of pure modern meaning (NPV method).

4. Internal rate of return (IRR).

5. Method of calculating the index of return on investment (PI).

1. The practice of evaluating the effectiveness of investments is based on the concept of the time value of money and is based on the following principles:

the assessment of the efficiency of using the invested capital is made by comparing the cash flow that is formed in the process of implementing the investment project and the initial investment. The project is effective if the return of the initial investment amount and the required return on the capital invested are ensured;

the invested capital, as well as the cash flow, is brought to the present time or to a certain accounting year;

the process of discounting cash flows is carried out at various discount rates equal to the required cost of the capital raised.

The essence of the valuation methods is based on a scheme according to which the initial investments during the implementation of the project generate cash flow CF1, CF2, ..., CFn.

An investment is recognized as effective if this flow is sufficient for:

return of the original amount of capital investments.

ensuring the required return on invested capital.

2. The payback period is based on cash flow, bringing the invested funds and the amount of cash flow to their present value.

Where, BY -payback period for investment

IS -the amount of investment funds;

DP n - the average amount of cash flow (in present value) in the period (usually for one year);

n - number of periods.

Example : Let both projects assume the same investment volume of $ 1,000 and are designed for four years. Project A generates the following cash flows by years: 500, 400, 300, 100, and project B - 100, 300, 400, 600. The cost of capital of the project is estimated at 10%. Calculation of the discounted payback period of the project A.

Thus, by the end of the second year, only $ 214 remains uncovered, the payback period for project A is:

Calculation of the discounted payback period for project B:

Conclusion: Project A is better because it has a shorter discounted payback period.

Disadvantage of the method: it only considers the initial cash flows.

3. The NPV method is based on the use of the concept of net present value.

NPV = CF 0 + +…+
=

where CF 1 - Net cash flow,

r - the cost of capital raised for an investment project.

The concept of “pure” has the following meaning: “each amount of money is defined as the algebraic sum of input and output flows. For example, if in the second year of the investment project the volume of capital investments is $ 15,000, and the cash income in the same year is $ 12,000, then the net amount of cash in the second year is $ 3,000.

The essence of the method NPV consists in comparing modern values \u200b\u200bof all input cash flows, modern values \u200b\u200bof output flows. The difference between the first and the second is pure modern meaning.

Method procedure:

Step 1. The current value of each cash flow, input and output, is determined.

Step 2. All discounted values \u200b\u200bof the cash flow elements are summed up and the criterion (NPV) is determined.

Step 3. Decision is made:

for a separate project: if NPV 0, then the project is accepted;

for several alternative projects: the project that has a higher NPV value is accepted, if it is positive.

Example : The management of the enterprise is going to introduce a new machine that performs operations that are currently performed manually. The machine costs $ 5,000 with the unit with a 5-year lifespan and zero residual value. According to the estimates of the financial department of the enterprise, the introduction of the machine due to the savings in manual labor will provide an additional input flow of $ 1,800. In the fourth year of operation, the car will require a $ 300 repair. Is it advisable to introduce a new car if the cost of the company's capital is 20%.

Calculating valuesNPV

Cash flow name		Monetary	Discounting multiplier 20%	The present value of money
Initial investment
Input cash flow
Car repairs
Modern Net Value (NPV)

Conclusions: The project is accepted.

General conclusion: with an increase in the rate of return on investment (the cost of capital of an investment project), the value of the NPV criterion decreases.

4. Internal Rate of Return (IRR).

The internal rate of return (IRR) is the value of the discount rate at which the present value of the investment is equal to the present value of the cash flows from investments, that is, (IRR) is the value of the discount rate at which the net present value of investment projects is provided.

The economic meaning of the internal rate of return is that it is such a rate of return on investment at which an enterprise is equally effective in investing its capital under the IRR of interest in financial instruments or to make real investments.

where CF j - input cash flow in the j-th period,

INV - the value of the investment.

if the IRR is higher or equal to the cost of capital, then the project is accepted;

if the IRR is less than the cost of capital, then the project is rejected.

Thus, IRR is a kind of “barrier indicator”: if the cost of capital is higher than the IRR value, then the project will provide the necessary return and return of money, therefore, the project should be rejected.

5. PI ):

if: PI\u003e 1, then the project should be accepted;

PI \u003d 1, then the project is neither profitable nor unprofitable.

Return on investment index ( PI ) characterizing the level of income per unit of cost, the higher the value of this indicator, the higher the return on each hryvnia invested in the project:

The internal rate of return characterizes the level of profitability of a particular investment project, expressed by the discount rate at which the future value of the cash flow is reduced to the present value of the invested funds. Internal rate of return ( GNI) - the discount rate at which the net present value in the discounting process will be reduced to zero. GNI for the first period:

,

where GNI -internal rate of return;

S c - future value of cash at compound interest;

R from - the present value of funds with compound interest;

n - duration of investment.

N
PV

The point of calculating the internal rate of return is as follows: IRR shows the expected profitability of a project and, therefore, the maximum allowable relative level of costs that can be associated with a given project.

For example, if the project is fully financed by a loan from a commercial bank, then the IRR value shows the upper limit of the acceptable level of the bank interest rate, the excess of which makes the project unprofitable.

Topic 7

Investment risk

Plan

1. Concept and characteristics of investment risk.

2. Analysis of investment risk.

1. Investment risk - the likelihood of events that may affect the failure to meet the planned investment objectives (in the form of profit, effect or other planned results).

There are risks:

Systematic (general economic);

Individual (non-systematic) - associated with the conditions for the implementation of a specific project.

Risk management includes its assessment and planning of measures that should reduce the degree of negative impact of undesirable events during the implementation of the project.

Project risk:

Political;

General economic;

Legal;

Technical;

Risk of project participants;

Financial risk;

Marketing Risk;

Environmental risk.

The choice of investment risk is a compromise between trying to make a profit and assessing its realism (level of risk).

Insurance of the project as a single complex or its separate elements;

Ensuring high liquidity of investments;

Diversification;

Distribution of the project into several independent parts and the creation of an investment object as a united complex of such parts;

Hedging is a type of insurance with simplified benefits by using a mechanism for securing contractual terms in the forecast period (futures and options contracts);

Timely planning and creation of the necessary reserves and stock of material and financial resources;

Qualification elaboration of agreements between the participants of the investment project;

High-quality and timely information support of investment plans;

Focus on integrating business;

The use of generally accepted systems and means of protecting the object (property) and ensuring its safety.

Thus, investment risk management is:

1) assessment of the level of risk;

2) measures to neutralize risk factors.

2. Risk analysis involves taking into account all changes that may lead to negative consequences during the implementation of the project.

The analysis assumes the analysis of scenarios according to the following scheme:

1. Choose the most uncertain parameters of the investment project;

2. Analyze the effectiveness of the project for the limit values \u200b\u200bof each parameter.

3. Evaluate the scenario:

• the most pessimistic,

  most optimistic (optional).

To quantitatively assess the level of risk, the principle of establishing the level of uncertainty of possible changes in project performance indicators in the event of unfavorable events for the project is used.

For this, the standard deviation () or coefficient of variation () is calculated.

1)

where is the predicted efficiency indicator for each calculation option, is the average value of the project value indicator from all calculations.

- the likelihood of future conditions, which are reflected in the variant and calculations.

The coefficient of variation determines the degree of deviation of the indicator from its average value.

Example : For three years of the investment project, the total reduced profit is predicted to be UAH 50 thousand. (pessimistic forecast), UAH 59 thousand. (the most reliable forecast) and UAH 63 thousand. (optimistic forecast). Determine the level of risk, uncertainty in predicting profit for the project.

Topic 8

Institutional analysis

Plan

1. The concept of the institutional environment.

2. Essence and structure of institutional analysis.

1. Institutional analysis - provides for the so-called "rules of the game" - economic, political, legal, which are accepted in society and reflect the experience of past development.

Thus, this is the space in which business entities operate.

Formal rules include :

Rules for concluding transactions;

Contracts;

Political norms.

Institutional analysis allows us to determine the feasibility of the project, taking into account the organizational, administrative, legal aspects of its implementation, as well as the compliance of projects with the external environment (national, sectoral and regional level of the economy and the conditions of entrepreneurial activity).

At the first stage, the institutional analysis is carried out to identify the project, determine the scale and main characteristics.

Main characteristics :

Composition of the project;

The scale of the project;

Time period for implementation;

Project type;

Industry orientation;

Region of implementation;

The enterprise on the basis of which the project will be implemented;

Sources of funds for the project.

An institutional assessment should provide answers to two questions :

1) is the enterprise properly organized, is its management capable of adequately performing its functions in a specific institutional environment?

2) are all local opportunities being used effectively and what changes in the enterprise environment can help to achieve the project goal?

Thus, the institutional analysis assesses the possibility of successful implementation of an investment project, taking into account the organizational, legal, political and administrative environment. Its main task is to qualitatively assess the combination of internal and external factors accompanying an investment project.

Internal factors are usually assessed according to the following scheme :

Analysis of the capabilities of production management.

Labor force analysis.

Organizational structure analysis.

The main priorities in terms of the analysis of external factors are mainly due to the following two aspects :

1) the policy of the state, including the conditions for the import and export of raw materials and materials :

1.2) the opportunity for foreign investors to invest and export goods;

1.3) the level of legislative norms governing labor relations;

1.4) the position of financial and banking regulation;

2) State approval.

The main objectives of institutional analysis are :

Assessment of the possible impact of policy laws and other aspects on the fate and results of the project,

Assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the project participants.

Comprehensive institutional analysis of the project.

2. Analysis of environmental factors includes:

1) investment assessment of the industry;

2) investment attractiveness of the region;

3) assessment of the state and prospects of the enterprise on the basis of which it is planned to implement the project;

4) experience and qualifications of project management;

5) motivation of project management;

6) administrative conditions for the implementation of the project;

7) legal conditions for the implementation of the project.

Components institutional analysis of the project

The institutional analysis of the project includes:

Project identification;

Compliance with external (macroeconomic) conditions;

Administrative conditions;

Legal terms;

The project management system includes (project structure, project management, personnel).

The main external conditions for the implementation of the project are determined on the basis of forecasting the parameters of the macroeconomic state of the economy and includes:

The expected level of financial stability;

The state of the foreign exchange market;

The state of the country's balance of payments;

Balance level of budgetary policy;

Monetary policy parameters;

The level of tax rates and forecasting their changes;

The level of reliability of the banking system and the ability to lend to investment projects;

The state of the financial market and the price of credit resources;

The level of profitability and riskiness of financial instruments;

The rate of economic growth of the country;

Business activity forecast for the future period.

When developing and evaluating an investment project, it is important to predict the main characteristics of the sustainability of the national economy:

Dynamics of domestic prices (inflation rate);

Exchange rate dynamics (devaluation level);

The forecast of the external conditions of the project covers the following aspects:

1) assessment of the level of risk and its consideration in the criteria for the profitability of the project;

2) taking into account possible price dynamics in the formation of cash flows for the project;

3) the choice of compliance with the rate of bringing cash flows for the project;

4) assessment of alternative options for using capital.

Topic 9

Analysis of the social aspects of the project

Plan

1. The essence and objectives of the social aspects of the project.

2. The structure of the social aspects of the project.

1. A positive assessment of the social aspects of the project means that the project can have a favorable environment for its implementation.

The task of the social analysis of the project is to determine its consistency with the interests of the population groups, which will be influenced by the project: those employed at the enterprise who will consume its products live in the project region.

A socially acceptable project strategy is a strategy that does not contradict the interests of the indicated groups of the population and contributes to the qualitative satisfaction of the socio-cultural needs of the population of the region and the country.

The social task of the project developers is to identify the most important needs of the population in the region and assess the possibilities of satisfaction.

Taking into account such indicators as the standard of living (income of the population), the level of structure of consumption and the quality of life (conditions and labor protection), the possibility of obtaining education, housing conditions, the state of the environment, health protection and education of young people.

2. The social analysis of the project includes the following steps:

І. Internal social impact of the project:

1.1. The number of new jobs;

1.2. Personnel qualification requirements;

1.3. Wage level;

1.4. Labor conditions and safety;

1.5. Social partnership at the enterprise;

1.6. The social significance of the project's products.

II. External social impact of the project:

2.1. Impact on employment in the region;

2.2. Demographic situation in the region;

2.3. Income and standard of living of the population;

2.4. Environmental Safety;

2.5. Health care and social infrastructure;

2.6. The crime situation in the region.

In the process of social analysis of the project, the following aspects are investigated:

1) availability in the region of labor resources capable of meeting the needs of the project in terms of their qualifications and quality;

2) characteristics of the way of life of the population in the region, including cultural, national, economic and demographic;

3) compliance of the project with the local cultural and professional level of the population;

4) positive interest of the local population in the project and local authorities;

5) the level of the trade union movement in the branch.

Topic 10

Defining the concept of assets

Plan

1. The concept of assets.

2. Timing chart of the loan.

1. In general terms, assets can be viewed as income-generating wealth, which usually appears in the form of productive capital and financial assets (money, securities).

Asset income can be expressed by the correspondence:

- income;

- a measure of profitability;

- the volume of income-generating wealth, considering capital in the form of a bond, the following indicators are distinguished:

, percent per year.

R – coupon rate;

C – coupon (this is the amount in UAH received as interest on bonds);

A – the par value of the bond (this is the amount of money that the bond element pays when it is issued);

P – the amount paid for the bond on the market (capitalized amount of debt);

i – rate of interest income (annual coupon related to the capital amount of debt, that is, the actual price paid for it in the market).

Interest in economic terms is the payment for the use of funds (loan loans) provided by the lender to the borrower.

So a five percent loan in thousand UAH. provides for payment, that is, a percentage of

The simplest credit operation involves the participation of two persons: the creditor - the person providing the debtor's funds - the person who receives the borrowed funds at his disposal for temporary use.

This implies the return of the funds received after a certain period of time and payment in the form of a percentage for its use.

Credit operation parameters:

P - credit amount;

T - the period for which the loan was issued;

I - payment for the loan, i.e. the amount of interest for the period of the transaction;

S - the full amount of the loan;

Loan interest rate:

Example : Let the loan be UAH 8 thousand. issued for half a year, a fee of 4 thousand UAH is withdrawn. What is in this case the semi-annual interest rate.

The interest rate is calculated for the specified time period, that is, it refers to the entire period of the loan agreement,

From an economic point of view, a credit operation refers to an investment, since the lender, provides the borrower with funds, receives income in the form of interest. In this case, the funds themselves are capital for the lender.

Topic 11

Analysis of the commercial feasibility of the project

Plan

1. The essence of the commercial analysis of the project.

2. The structure of the analysis of the commercial feasibility of the project.

1. The analysis of the commercial reality of the project involves the study of two aspects:

a) potential sales opportunities for products in planned volumes and prices;

b) providing the project with the necessary resources.

Marketing analysis is about answering two simple questions:

1) Will we be able to sell the product resulting from the project?

2) Will we be able to get enough profit from this to justify the investment project?

The basic questions of marketing analysis are as follows:

What market is the project focused on?

How is the demand balanced between the international and domestic markets?

Does the project meet public policy objectives?

The marketing plan of the project must provide the planned sales volumes, and therefore it provides for a set of measures to ensure the income of the project.

The entire marketing mix can be combined into four blocks:

Market analysis;

Analysis of the competitive environment;

Product policy development;

Collection and analysis of marketing information.

The purpose of market research is to identify consumer needs, identify market segments in order to speed up the decision-making process in the field of marketing.

When analyzing demand, the following key issues should be considered:

Who is the potential buyer?

Why buy a product?

How will the purchase be made?

The marketing plan should be an integral part of the project. When developing it, the marketer must answer the following questions:

How well designed is the product?

Has the correct pricing strategy been identified?

Has an effective marketing strategy been identified?

Does the sales system provide effective communication between the seller and the buyer?

2. The sequence of analysis of the marketing plan:

Description of the market qualities of the project's products;

Research of the future market of the project's products;

Analysis of the demand for the products of the project;

Analysis of the project product offer;

Justification of the strategy and methods of product sales.

The main task of the project's marketing plan is to forecast the demand and prices for products and develop measures for their sales.

Analysis of the commercial reality of the project.

Thus, the marketing section is of decisive importance in the project analysis as it allows to obtain the market information necessary to assess the viability of the project.

Topic 12

Technical analysis. Production plan of the project

Plan

1. Tasks of technical analysis.

2. The structure and sequence of the development of the production plan of the project.

1 ... The tasks of the project analysis technology are:

1) determination of the technology most suitable from the point of view of the project goal;

2) analysis of local conditions, including the availability and cost of raw materials, energy, labor.

3) verification of the potential for planning and implementation of the project;

When choosing a technology, they are guided by the following criteria:

Consider using existing technology and capacities. The technology must be standard and unified;

The technology should not be oriented towards imported equipment;

The technology selection rule provides for a comprehensive analysis of some alternative technologies and the selection of the best option based on any consolidated criterion.

2. The key factors in choosing among alternative technologies are reduced to the analysis of the following aspects of the use of aspects:

1. Previous use of selected technologies in similar scales.

2. Availability of raw materials, their quality and cost.

3. Methods of raw material delivery cost.

4. Environmental safety.

5. Availability and cost of energy resources and communication services.

6. Availability of a patent license for the technology used.

7. Adaptability of technology to local conditions.

9. Labor protection and environmental safety.

The production plan of the project is developed in order to ensure an effective organizational production process, interconnected in time and material resources, at each workplace and in the whole project.

This aspect is of particular importance in the case of organizing a multi-product flow of production.

The production system of the project includes:

Production apparatus;

Team plans for product release;

Organization of material and technical support of production;

Ensuring the required product quality;

Organization of storage and transportation of material resources and finished products;

Equipment maintenance plans;

The component of the project associated with the technical means of its implementation is called project engineering, which includes:

Selection of the location of the production, taking into account the local engineering and transport infrastructure;

Selection and justification of technology;

The choice of purchasing and installing equipment;

Technological layout of equipment in different rooms;

Ensuring the quality of products on the installed equipment;

Organization of storage facilities;

Organization of transportation;

Training of specialists for the operation and maintenance of equipment.

The structure of the production plan includes:

List and description of the required equipment;

Description of its benefits;

Performance;

Working hours;

Organization of technological services;

The specific technology must be assessed depending on the specific conditions of the project:

Raw materials, the possibility of using local technologies;

Positive experience of using the selected technology;

Safety;

Resistance to obsolescence;

The ability to expand capacity;

Compatibility with existing project equipment;

Ease of technology mastering;

Necessary qualifications of the service personnel;

The optimal ratio of automation and manual labor;

The optimal ratio of capital and operating costs for the selected technology.

When choosing a specific type of project equipment, the following parameters should be considered:

1) service life;

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{!LANG-693e60c7ff9b836742b736eb6e4d3fc1!}

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{!LANG-745739a627e90e4b227d473b3b08ba9e!}

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{!LANG-92d47c8866bf711a39db0f0beadf8b1d!}

{!LANG-a5e1610b9fd348228dc665a920059fde!}

Plan

{!LANG-d308f0dbf52ec7383ec5bdbc919eac09!}

{!LANG-20ce012bdfa6e1d5acba0d2c19518542!}

1. {!LANG-ad33df81420d000bdf1f545cea393ced!}

{!LANG-0707f87b19e97c8c81eb06d74674347c!}

{!LANG-b4effb36e4c50a538e5155d715e0b6d1!}

Market analysis;

{!LANG-b462e2948546fa6de2f90d0ca96c053b!}

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{!LANG-b2a75da73aab03168df6ec9df29d5be1!}

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{!LANG-ea706f62dcec6a95b5b370788a8c6b28!}

{!LANG-bc564e5597272dc6612593c387e591a8!}

{!LANG-badef1fcce7fea29f207d7f60a809dcc!}

{!LANG-81e8bcd046954a083e3ef10434da66ee!}

2. {!LANG-7c3594d7a8b688557d775874e2e4db11!}

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{!LANG-b1a416396194564b13fb5c01b3622005!}

{!LANG-2ce5df5a14def92d136172c0b921beac!}

{!LANG-0cbe058d1dd6c714651e20b1e7fe5286!}

{!LANG-d0af064ae5501011bc3a8e9eae2cd62d!}

{!LANG-4924866fb25cf64e5eb2e819e7e5213c!} :

{!LANG-90ad970b400b244083302d726fd66124!}

{!LANG-a86e2f83c103ed45ef055364327a383b!}

{!LANG-d10404b382523fe0e3d2cbf8993b6623!}

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{!LANG-2eeeb866caff1f2ca6068a9c442044ca!}

{!LANG-ebee1a1e9f753e4dfb0e47b278921b5f!}

Plan

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{!LANG-9796c7afb71d810d2a95d217d8751550!}

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{!LANG-ec76f67af8c9aaa5c4cbbc68bbe15af7!}

{!LANG-1e575304a813fea7a53e3d49f387c60f!}

{!LANG-f22d814cc7bb6603685d3ef1b1a336ab!}

{!LANG-7b64021cbcbf20ed9427d5a16221295e!}

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{!LANG-004944dac736585439907f412fcff972!}

{!LANG-84715ed56b8c9b7ea9e483c6b577c7c7!}

{!LANG-53522fa97e9860cd8dc28236ca20f044!}

{!LANG-39e0910cfa28d1d28fd87da8e94338eb!}

{!LANG-f3604327dd106186e78667e28fa10cfd!}

{!LANG-5de8c5921957bc15b43e4c6a9ceccff9!}

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{!LANG-b7ac2dfdbc4cbc35a49cabd19e75d429!}

{!LANG-78357e11ddb0fa99d4761d5062fa6943!}

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{!LANG-2cd1959bb7ca941e39f5e088b45f05ea!}

{!LANG-d6e163b08206dfef33ca82003442ff2f!}

4. {!LANG-68bec22a1f972e7ef51a7f521902cfc6!}

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{!LANG-79c58af253a6a8beab59aff0072e58ac!}

{!LANG-1f6e507985ff3ae4ab1ee138293c89af!}

{!LANG-4c83fd76d666d185e8fb2caf6176417e!}

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{!LANG-061d45844c5be18b8dfb39d64adb43e7!}

{!LANG-22939983fb9753ca127236bbf07991bb!}

{!LANG-cf7b265e26d1e7e323b2c1056c34407f!} {!LANG-b0cf38714b8135ba4e592c5df968d414!} {!LANG-7dbafa15a4975aa026174918dc5e559f!}{!LANG-160e0c31a0486fb5d310220bf8a79b04!} {!LANG-5d39495257068b3f847f8ab9fb5d5a41!}{!LANG-afb3366b7a15e8c1e2278a0308ff2dad!} {!LANG-4b69a4e5230e8fec4736505b871362ca!}{!LANG-21e9e4686f66670fe3a8b488b112c190!}

{!LANG-9c0a591b3b211d7a461c323b49c78a10!} {!LANG-64b24ab61cfbc381e4ca90499f778c86!}{!LANG-e82287cb3ae1d641deac45087b2448bc!}

{!LANG-1ba29ec116726df5cfad454b21579793!}

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{!LANG-1d0f1b250f2f30ab8a9cf8364fc24e9f!}{!LANG-cf835cc087228dcc037a18a1652d4f45!}

{!LANG-6cfde4e912818b556af53489b5c2a060!}

{!LANG-d52f734600deed18a2b627973d2f1e9f!} {!LANG-4b69a4e5230e8fec4736505b871362ca!}{!LANG-a89dec11bcfe405e3bda8df1c43a467f!} {!LANG-cde49ab01b97067e656953722a496e28!} {!LANG-7dbafa15a4975aa026174918dc5e559f!}{!LANG-630ad0bc62011120d95feaff2161051d!} {!LANG-4b69a4e5230e8fec4736505b871362ca!}{!LANG-b661eb5490af9f15367c4c0cc6de8786!} {!LANG-dab84e922b4e733f762682d29e083d10!}{!LANG-30df2bbdf6073aea81d57cdabd677b77!}

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{!LANG-3f787d4455e883d8e5b2094c20968f17!}

... {!LANG-1d0f1b250f2f30ab8a9cf8364fc24e9f!}{!LANG-c1211841432a6cdb0b675de276d66d00!} {!LANG-278b1dccfa287bbdd457b1b8f8954b4b!}{!LANG-cb6bccdb3eafce7b9fb6c9f5dc1460ba!} {!LANG-de7079eaecbdb728ad4277ae913a4200!}{!LANG-73365e38bf2b65234d77914e34d9fae0!} {!LANG-dab84e922b4e733f762682d29e083d10!}{!LANG-44d0c40b655e18fc0e015cc0dc826ffc!} {!LANG-cde49ab01b97067e656953722a496e28!} {!LANG-7dbafa15a4975aa026174918dc5e559f!}{!LANG-d495d8fecb5b365b181bd0c544027da1!}

{!LANG-cff77a7bec1212840b22136ddf6324ae!}{!LANG-f18a8e84d73ddb5dd13fc748a30e933d!}

{!LANG-fd4820d445014a938a67f4b3b535e5cf!}

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{!LANG-8d449ff5209f12753613091791d96820!}

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{!LANG-b41a9ceb3a682c840dd24d420f169381!}

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{!LANG-4f975ae8aeafa6f74775619d9c1f2e83!}

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